Vistas convencionales y precios de activos:
¿Qué esperar después de tiempos de opiniones extremas?
Resumen
Se estudia el desempeño de los mercados bursátiles luego de períodos en los que se observan opiniones extremas. Se conjetura que instancias con opiniones extremas están asociadas a sobre-reacciones en la percepción de riqueza. El análisis cubre 34 países desde 1988 hasta 2013. Utilizando un enfoque novedoso, las opiniones sobre desempeño económico son aproximadas procesando los contenidos difundidos por la prensa económica global. En forma consistente con la conjetura planteada, el desempeño relativo de los mercados bursátiles es bajo luego de opiniones optimistas y alto luego de opiniones pesimistas. Se observa una diferencia persistente y predecible en retornos que no puede ser explicada por medidas tradicionales de exposición al riesgo.
Citas
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